It is not possible to predict the road NASCAR will travel by the time we reach the final 2019 checkered flag, but it will be entertaining to speculate.

This decade begins as NASCAR tail spins in the wrong direction it’s a sharp contrast to the beginning of the last decade when NASCAR viewership, attendance and corporate interest were all surging. Today, all of those trends are in reverse, and this decade will truly define whether NASCAR remains as a mainstream sport or becomes another fledgling motorsport series.

I believe the major stories and events that will affect NASCAR in the coming years will have little or nothing to do with on track racing. So let me begin with a few predictions before we take our first green flag of 2010.

The Car of Tomorrow (COT)

By any account other than driver safety, the COT has been a miserable failure, and many point to the introduction of the COT as a defining moment in the accelerated decrease in fan interest. Since making its debut, the COT has been one of the most controversial rule changes to be introduced in NASCAR. There is no question that NASCAR will eventually make changes to their ill advised COT design, but the question is how dramatic and rapid will changes be introduced. I believe this decision will define the sport in the coming decade, because unless on-track racing significantly improves, NASCAR is doomed to become a second-rate sport with limited commercial exposure.

The Fall of Brian France

Mayfield vs. NASCAR is a fight NASCAR wishes it never fought. First, let me provide a bit of background information. In 2008 NASCAR implemented a clandestine drug testing policy where they refused to provide competitors a list of banned substances. And in 2009, long time driver Jeremy Mayfield, was the first driver to face a suspension for use of a banned substance. The drug was later identified as Methamphetamine, or more commonly known as Meth. (See my blog post in the summer of 2009 for more information – NASCAR in Peril: Victory for Jeremy Mayfield in Drug Testing Legal Battle). What NASCAR didn’t anticipate was Mayfield fighting back and filing a lawsuit to reinstate his license to drive in NASCAR. Both sides have won important decisions, but the court fight continues. However, just recently this soap opera is becoming even juicier, the U.S. District Court has ruled in favor of Mayfield to require sensitive documents about Brian France’s third (or fourth but who’s counting) marriage to be unsealed. Many insiders believe evidence will come forward further tarnishing Brian France’s ability to continue to lead NASCAR into the next decade.

Sprint as the Title Sponsor of the Cup Series

The elephant in the room is the pending expiration of the sport’s lucrative sponsorship agreement with Sprint as title sponsor of the NASCAR Cup Series. Back in the summer of 2003, when Sprint (f/k/a NEXTEL) agreed to a 10 year agreement with NASCAR, no one expected the rapid decline of fan interest and corporate sponsorship within just a couple of years. Ironically, Sprint too has blood on their hands for the sponsorship troubles of racing teams, which contribute to the overall problems in the sport. Sprint pushed out and prevented several companies from sponsoring racing teams, including AT&T Wireless who was prepared to enter NASCAR in 2004 as a primary sponsor, but Sprint through their exclusivity agreement with NASCAR, prevented AT&T from entering the sport. And then, after AT&T Wireless merged with Cingular Wireless (who was grandfathered into sport through their existing sponsorship agreement with RCR), Sprint pushed AT&T Wireless out once again. This was basically the same story for Verizon Wireless and Alltel. But I digress, we are discussing the future, and following the expiration of the current agreement with Sprint there is little doubt NASCAR will be left without a title sponsor of the Cup Series. And with the falling value of the title sponsorship rights, I expect NASCAR to be forced to sell the rights for a deep discount. But like everything else in NASCAR, the teams will bear the brunt of the negative financial consequences.

New Television Contracts

Not unlike, the situation with Sprint as the title sponsor, agreements with the existing television partners expire in a couple of years. And, with the enhanced competition from the NFL, all signs point to a significantly lower value being attributed to the NASCAR contract. The reduction in the sport’s revenues will further hamper smaller NASCAR teams from competing and consequently continue the most alarming trends of decreased fan viewership, attendance and corporate sponsorship.

The Retirement of Today’s Superstars

It’s no secret that Jeff Gordon has been suffering from significant back pain stemming from an on track accident. So the question begs, when will one of the greatest and most popular drivers hang up his racing helmet? Could the dominance of Jimmie Johnson accelerate Jeff Gordon’s retirement? And more so, Jeff Gordon isn’t the only NASCAR star that could retire in the next decade from full-time racing. Is it possible, if Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s performance doesn’t dramatically improve that he might head towards an early retirement? These questions will surely plague NASCAR in the forthcoming decade and could have far reaching effects on the entire sport. Even though in the past several years neither Gordon nor Earnhardt have been top performers on the track, they still remain the top two fan and sponsor favorites. And during a time when NASCAR is desperately trying to stop the hemorrhage of fan and corporate interest, the retirement of one or both iconic names could be devastating.

My negativity is an attempt to bring forth positive change to NASCAR. It is horrifying to watch a sport I have watched most of my life be destroyed. But without question, NASCAR, under the leadership of Bill France Sr. and Bill France Jr. made many wise decisions which helped to elevate the sport to the peaks in 2004. Unfortunately, the management decisions of NASCAR in the last half of the past decade have grossly undermined the sport. Even though the previous generations of the France Family were successful shepherds of NASCAR, under the faltering management of Brian France – NASCAR has failed its competitors, fans and sponsors. If the France Family truly loves NASCAR – then they must consider selling NASCAR to a new ownership group, who is prepared to rebuild the sport before all remains is a storied past.

2009 was a dreadful year for the print publications and it appears a mainstay in the NASCAR industry is also on the brink. It’s no secret that after the boom years of NASCAR earlier this decade, advertisers and sponsors have left the sport in droves – but until now the primary victims were racing teams. But on Monday, this time it was NASCAR Scene and its website, Scene Daily.

According to Daly Planet, it’s rumored the title that launched in 1982 lost almost its entire staff on Monday. It is run by the American City Business Journals, which is based in Charlotte. ACBJ is owned by Advance Publications, which publishes magazines such as The Sporting News, Vanity Fair, and GQ.

One thing is clear, print media and NASCAR is a lethal combination in today’s economic times. Let’s just hope that management at NASCAR begins to listen to their fans and competitors and bring about the right change to invigorate the sport’s fan base and advertisers.

Everyone is aware that a severe sponsor recession is hitting the NASCAR industry. But many are blaming the broader economic crisis as opposed to examining the dreadful trends eroding the NASCAR value proposition. NASCAR is facing a steady drop in television viewership, race attendance and overall fan interest, and the costs to operate a Sprint Cup team has almost tripled since 2002. Today, the top three teams – Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Roush Fenway Racing— are seeking complete season sponsorships between $22 million to $25 million. With the going rate per race anywhere from $500,000 to $750,000 – is there ANYONE who believes there is a ROI for sponsors at these prices? I don’t believe so.

Another alarming business trend, is that now, most sponsors want single-year deals. These days, a six-race package for $3 million qualifies as a “big deal” in Sprint Cup circles. The marquee free agent among sponsors is Ask.com, which spent about $4 million on its team deal with Hall of Fame Racing for the 2009 season and likely won’t spend more than that on the next deal, if indeed, the search engine decides to stay in the sport. Big name sponsors Allstate, DeWalt, Jack Daniel’s and Jim Beam will leave after this year, choosing to save that money or spend it elsewhere.

And of course, we are all aware of the market forces pushing the automakers to reduce their financial exposure to NASCAR – so I will ask the same simple question I have been asking for two years.

Why isn’t NASCAR doing anything to help the teams to ensure the long term viability of the sport?

I think the answer is pretty simple – they don’t feel they need too. And instead, want to continue pocketing the vast majority of the sports’ lucrative television contracts. And why, you may ask, has NASCAR (France Family) been able to dominate teams? I believe it is because NASCAR teams haven’t united into an association or partnership demanding the right changes to the sport. Just look across the pond to Formula 1 – while they face their own unique challenges, they do have a much more fair and logical business model. The teams are part of an association (Formula One Teams Association – FOTA), that collectively negotiates on financial matters and the adoption of rules affecting competition in their sport.

Whereas, when you look at NASCAR, you have a dictatorship run by Brian France, who I believe most will agree has single handedly undone many of the incredible accomplishments of his late father and grandfather. But as a former NASCAR team owner, I know the teams feel powerless. But it the truth be known, NASCAR is nothing without the teams. Now is the time for the teams to stand up and make a stand – the team owners are the only hope to save NASCAR. Teams must unite on common principles:

• Increased competiveness: major changes are required to the Car of Tomorrow to ignite fan interest
• Reduced operating expenses: less personnel at the track and NASCAR needs to follow the lead of Formula 1 and require race engines to be used at more than one event
• Modern technology: embrace fuel injection and alternative fuels/energy sources to make NASCAR an R&D platform for the automakers.
• Greater Revenue Sharing: Demand an equal share of the television revenues split between NASCAR, Race Tracks and Teams.

These 4 basic principles could reduce annual corporate sponsorship prices from $20 million down to $10 million – a marketing budget that could be justified to corporate executives. Plus, these changes would reignite the automakers interest in investing in the sport and most importantly, bring back the on-track excitement that race fans expect.

If teams do not take a united stand, but rather chose instead to continue to run around in circles spinning their wheels – they are facing certain annihilation.

Earlier today, Jeremy Mayfield was granted preliminary injunction from the U.S. District Court in Charlotte, NC – lifting his suspension levied by NASCAR – so he will be allowed to race this weekend at Daytona. This initial victory for Mayfield presents potential challenges for NASCAR and their credibility.

For those who are unfamiliar with the complexities of the judicial system, the legal threshold for receiving equitable relief is “irreparable harm” and without a question, IF Jeremy Mayfield is innocent, his continued inability to race, meets and exceeds this threshold for the U.S. District Court to intervene and provide relief to Mayfield. Or in the words of U.S. District Court Judge Mullen:

“Harm to Mayfield significantly outweighs harm to NASCAR”

While many in the NASCAR community may see this court proceeding as an isolated issue between Jeremy Mayfield and NASCAR – I believe this case could have significant rippling effects on the entire sport. Ultimately, it will challenge the “dictatorship” of the France Family and most likely require far greater transparency in NASCAR’s future actions. NASCAR’s arrogance may have finally caught up with them. Unlike any other major sport, NASCAR refuses to publish a list of banned substances – and Jeremy Mayfield claims (through his attorney) that NASCAR’s drug testing program does not meet federal workplace guidelines or follow proper procedure of SAMHSA [substance abuse and mental health services association].

But the greater dilemma that NASCAR faces is how to proceed with the ongoing Jeremy Mayfield legal battle. After NASCAR spokesman, Ramsey Poston, made accusations that Mayfield tested positive for methamphetamines, NASCAR would face a significant credibility challenge if they decided to settle the continued legal actions of Mayfield to circumvent continued discovery and future hearings/trials. However, on the flipside, the continued legal battle (Permanent Injection Hearing and Possible Civil Trial for Financial Damages) could expose very damning evidence for NASCAR and other competitors. It’s no secret that NASCAR “plays favorites” with their application of the rule book and other policies, so IF other competitors have tested positive for banned substances, and NASCAR failed to enforce their “policy”, it could cause severe and lasting damage to NASCAR. So everyone, watch out in the days and months ahead – lots of debris could be flying through the air.

According to Sports Media Watch, FOX has its lowest rated NASCAR season ever.

A year of declines has concluded with FOX drawing its lowest average rating for NASCAR since the net began airing races in ’01.

Excluding the rain delayed Coca Cola 600, 12 NASCAR races averaged a 5.1/11 rating and 8.5 million viewers on FOX during the 2009 season, down 11% in ratings and 9% in viewers from a 5.7/12 and 9.3 million last year, and the lowest rated season ever for NASCAR on FOX.

Last Sunday’s Autism Speaks 400 drew a 4.0/10 final rating on FOX, down 11% from a 4.5/11 for the same race last year.

Every single, solitary NASCAR Sprint Cup telecast on FOX — all twelve races, the Budweiser Shootout and Daytona 500 Qualifying — saw declining ratings this season. 10 of the 12 races saw double-digit declines, including the last nine.

Despite the declines, NASCAR on FOX easily topped its competition. The 5.1 rating for NASCAR races on FOX is 65% higher than the 3.1 average for the ’09 NBA Playoffs (not including the ongoing NBA Finals) and 16% higher than the 4.4 for last year’s MLB Playoffs (including the World Series).

Additionally, the 8.5 million viewers is 42% higher than the 6.0 million for last year’s college football bowl games (including the BCS), and is only slightly off from the 8.9 million viewers for last year’s NCAA Tournament (including the Final Four).

Ratings for NASCAR on FOX in 2009.

Asterisk (*) indicates race was moved to another day because of rain.

Questioning the future of Dodge’s continuing involvement in NASCAR is nothing new – back in September 2008, I wrote about the pending withdrawal of Dodge from NASCAR and unfortunately this appears to be the plan for 2010. (http://tinyurl.com/dlymm8)

Many, at first glance, didn’t feel that the Chrysler bankruptcy filing on Thursday would have any effect on the Sprint Cup teams backed by Dodge. And Chrysler was quick to issue a statement on Thursday reaffirming their commitment to NASCAR. It really should not come as a surprise that the new management from Fiat realizes the current iteration of the COT and the marketing platform offered by NASCAR is too expensive and doesn’t align with their new focus. Fiat/Chrysler’s new focus is on small fuel efficient cars and not on outdated large cars that inspired the NASCAR “Car of Tomorrow”.

Many sources strongly believed that Chrysler (Dodge) may pull its NASCAR funding in 2010. As many know, Dodge already slashed its motorsports budget by 30 percent this year. Then the question becomes this: What would happen to the teams that Dodge financially supports, if indeed they pull their support? That is the great unknown.

As I have professed for over two years, NASCAR is facing a crossroad; but yet, it continues down an ill-fated pathway of an outdated “Car of Tomorrow” instead of adopting a fresh approach that would leverage “green technologies” such as, biofuels and renewable energy, and a branding platform that is attractive to companies like Fiat. As I stated in July 2008,

You must wonder – why is NASCAR asleep at the wheel? Over the past decade, NASCAR has developed a phenomenal market platform for all types of companies – but without the financial and marketing support of the carmakers – NASCAR teams can’t afford to operate.
The time is now for NASCAR to embrace tomorrow’s future – alternative energy and fuel efficiency branding is required for the long-term viability of the sport as a marketing platform for the automotive manufacturers. (See: http://tinyurl.com/cwcjpj)

I am a strong believer that negative events create opportunities. NASCAR and the Big 3 (GM, Ford and Chrysler) at one time were going down a parallel road, but unfortunately as NASCAR started to become a rapidly growing mainstream sport in the early part of the decade and corporate sponsors rushed into the sport with their large marketing budgets looking to tap into this brand-loyal demographic, NASCAR lost sight of the value proposition and ROI required to keep the Big 3 involved in NASCAR. In the next couple of years, many will ask, why didn’t NASCAR do more to keep the Big 3 involved? The answer is quite simple, NASCAR and their Teams have a huge disconnect, and what’s good for NASCAR isn’t always what’s best for their Teams. Unlike all other major sports, like the NHL, NBA, MLB, and NFL; NASCAR team owners don’t have any say in the direction and decisions of the sport, nor do they participate in the financial upside during the good times. But what I do know is that they do bare the majority of the consequences during the difficult times. When Chrysler/Dodge leaves NASCAR, many teams will suffer and likely shutdown, but NASCAR Corporate will face very little short-term repercussions.

With the economic recession, dreadful environment for automakers and falling ratings of NASCAR racing, NASCAR has the opportunity to implement needed changes to put the sport in a position for growth and long term sustainability.

The solutions and answers for NASCAR are quite simple: race a car that is aligned with the automakers objectives, provide a fair distribution of revenues to competitors (teams), implement rigid cost controls; and, equally as important, please allow the drivers the freedom to race without the fear of penalties for relatively harmless actions. NASCAR, after all is said is done, should be entertainment.

The Associated Press (AP) has reported Brian France, CEO of NASCAR, has directed his management to work with teams in developing new business models that can help them withstand the current economic crisis. As we are all aware, NASCAR teams rely on corporate sponsorship to fund the majority of their operating budgets, which is substantially different than any other major sport. Whereas, NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB teams participate in higher levels of revenue sharing as a result of a franchise business model.

“We’re trying to do more with less. That’s the difficult part of this economy,” France said following his state-of-the-sport address to media at NASCAR’s Research and Development Center. Just back in December, NASCAR issued a statement stating that NASCAR heading into 2009 was “strong”.

This outlook is a rather quick reversal, but perhaps the gravity of the current economic climate and mass sponsor deflections is making an impact.

Doing more with less? Working with teams to develop new business models? I apologize, but in my humble opinion, it’s a little too late for a half-baked plan. But even worse and what is frustrating is NASCAR’s continued unwillingness to restructure the distribution of television revenues to rightly supplement teams’ operating budgets.

What NASCAR needs is a business model which more closely replicates Formula 1 or a franchise structure like every other major sport. As a fervent advocate for team rights, I have repeatedly voiced the need to develop a franchise model that would enable teams to weather macroeconomic difficulties; and subsequently, become less cyclical and more stable during recessions and economic turmoil. The time for leadership, sacrifice and decisive action on behalf of the France Family is NOW. But to the contrary, the Brian France plan is nothing more than reinforcing their past strategies of working with teams to help locate and secure sponsors. While his intentions may be honorable; they are nevertheless naïve when considering there is a global economic recession; and specifically, when the NASCAR industry is in a depression of historic proportions. At this moment, I don’t believe there is a single corporation that is considering spending $15-$30 million required to fund a primary sponsorship program for a NASCAR Sprint Cup team. So I am rather befuddled with Brian France’s simplistic strategy to save the sport, which unfortunately in its current form will contribute to the sport’s certain collapse.

Is it possible that the past success of NASCAR is blinding Brian France from seeing the light? Reflecting back to 60 years ago to the earlier days of NASCAR, Bill France Sr. (Brian France’s grandfather) executed a flawless business plan to convince the then stock car racers and event promoters to become part of his newly formed organization and sanctioning body (NASCAR), whereby he gained complete control over stock car racing. The foundation of NASCAR’s “business model” problems ironically stem from the grand success of Bill Sr. and his unilateral control of a racing empire, including control over the majority of racing venues (International Speedway Corp) and the stock car sanctioning body. Over the past half-century, teams competing in NASCAR relied almost exclusively on corporate sponsors to fund their operations – enabling the France Family to retain a majority of the sports revenues and amass a large network of racing venues, and establishing NASCAR Holdings, an incredibly profitable wholly owned private company.

Those times have dramatically changed and for too long, NASCAR teams have tolerated the exploitation and willingly bore the total burden to exclusively fund their operations through advertising and sponsorship. The rapid increases in costs of racing and teams’ operating expenses of the past 5 years, combined with the minimal increase in sponsorship value – have brought the teams’ very existence into question.

One must wonder, how long can the France Family continue their racing monopoly? Historically, race teams have avoided conflict with the France Family; and the only entities to challenge the France Family’s monopoly have been race track owners, such as Burton Smith and Speedway Motorsports. Even through the France Family has weathered many possible anti-trust challenges with settling most disputes outside the judicial system; I believe the current financial crisis and advertising recession is about to test the resolve of the France Family and their prehistoric business model.

In a stark contrast to the past decade, NASCAR is falsely promoting an image of growth and strength by stating that 15 new organizations have applied for licensing to compete in the Sprint Cup Series. What they fail to mention and what many novices are unaware – almost all of those “new” teams are merely opportunistic racers attempting to profit by a method called: “start and park”, which allows them to collect sizable race winnings (in comparison to their expenses) with a team and car specifically built to just run one or two laps, enabling them to collect profits – all without adding ANY value to the sport. What a sad day it is for the diehard NASCAR fan.

As many of you know, I was the founder of Bang Racing which was NASCAR’s most successful first year team in history. At the young age of 23, I built and operated this highly successful team and we made history finishing 2nd in our first race (Daytona) and winning our 13th race (Michigan International Speedway), which was the first win for Toyota in NASCAR history. While all this is now historical facts found in the archives of NASCAR history, what is typically not understood is that even as a very competitive team, our business model was fundamentally flawed because generating a profit was nearly impossible. Simply put; the cost of running a NASCAR team far exceeds its sponsorship/advertising revenue potential and without significant “business model” changes by the France Family, teams are doomed for failure.

NASCAR must be the only sport where the most profitable teams are the biggest losers’ and where finishing dead-last or not even attempting to win makes more money than being a top competitor. Something is dreadfully wrong when the most competitive teams with great on track performance cannot survive because the costs of running their teams far exceed their revenue potential. The problem is clear: without teams receiving a larger share of the sports’ multi-billion dollar television contracts – there will be no strategy that can make viable a long-term solution for the sport – that is the simple reality.

However, being the “optimist”, I hope Brian France and will realize quickly that his family has the unilateral ability to deliver the change in business model the teams and sport require to survive.